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James Hyerczyk
Crude Oil
Crude Oil

After consolidating for five trading sessions, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures spiked lower in reaction to concerns over lower demand due to the escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China, and by signs of rising global supply despite the looming sanctions against Iran.

At 1355 GMT, December WTI crude oil futures are trading $65.55, down $1.49 or -2.23%.

Daily December WTI Crude Oil

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. After consolidating for five sessions, the downtrend resumed earlier today when sellers took out last week’s low at $65.74. The next major target is the August 16 main bottom at $63.48.

The market is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is in the window of time for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. This could trigger a 2 to 3 counter-trend rally.

The main range is $63.48 to $76.72. Its retracement zone at $68.54 to $70.10 is resistance. Trading on the weak side of this zone is giving the market a downside bias.

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Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action, the direction of the December WTI crude oil market the rest of the session will be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $65.11. This is the last support angle before the $63.48.

A sustained move over $63.48 will indicate the presence of counter-trend buyers. They could be the last buyers trying to defend the $63.48 bottom. If they’re able to generate enough upside momentum, we could see a late session rally into a pair of Gann angles at $66.73 and $67.22. Taking out $67.22 could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Look for a potential acceleration to the downside if $63.48 fails as support. This could trigger a spike into $63.48.

Look for volatility late in the session following the release of the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventories report.

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