Crude Oil Price Update – Supported by Russian Supply Worries

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher on Friday as speculators bet a drop in Russian crude supply will tighten global stockpiles.

The fresh wagers are helping to offset worries that a looming Arctic storm will negatively affect U.S. transport and travel fuel demand growth.

At 11:51 GMT, March WTI crude oil futures are trading $79.03, up $1.61 or +2.08%. On Thursday, the United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) settled at $67.73, down $0.33 or -0.48%.

The market weakened into the close on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data pointed toward persistent inflation, increasing Fed rate hike and inflation fears.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher.

A trade through $83.14 will change the main trend to up. A move through $70.56 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A trade through $73.49 will change the minor trend to down.

The short-term range is $83.14 to $70.56. The market is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone at $78.33 to $76.85, making it support.

The main range is $89.89 to $70.56. Its retracement zone at $80.23 to $82.51 is new resistance.

The minor range is $70.56 to $79.77. Its 50% level or pivot at $75.17 is potential support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at $78.33 is likely to determine the direction of March WTI crude oil futures on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $78.33 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main 50% level at $80.23. Overtaking this level could spike prices into the main Fibonacci level at $82.51, followed by the main top at $83.14.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $78.33 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored break into a pair of 50% levels at $76.85 and $75.17.