Crude Oil Price Update – Sustained Move Over $50.36 Should Launch Next Rally

November West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures are trading flat shortly before the regular session opening. The market is trading inside yesterday’s range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. Traders may still be digesting yesterday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventories report which showed a huge jump in U.S. exports.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, the market has been under pressure since September 28.

The main range is $47.59 to $52.86. Its retracement zone at $50.23 to $49.60 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone is likely to determine the near-term direction of the crude oil market.

The short-term range is $52.86 to $49.76. If buyers can overcome $50.23 then its retracement zone at $51.31 to $51.68 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Forecast

Based on the current price at $49.98 and the earlier price action, the direction of the crude oil market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $50.23.

Overtaking $50.23 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of the downtrending angle at $50.36. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this angle, but it is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

If a rally over $50.36 can gain traction, we could see a strong move into the short-term retracement zone at $51.31.

A sustained move under $50.23 will indicate the presence of sellers. If the selling volume increases then look for a possible break into yesterday’s low at $49.76, followed by the Fibonacci level at $49.60. This is followed by an uptrending angle at $49.14.

Basically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $50.36.