March West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures are trading slightly better shortly before the regular session opening. There was no follow-through to the downside after yesterday’s second consecutive steep sell-off. The market is trading inside yesterday’s range. This suggests investor indecision and impending volatility
The indecision is in reaction to today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly inventories report and President-elect Donald Trump’s first press conference since the November election.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.
The main range is $46.62 to $56.24. Its retracement zone at $51.43 to $50.29 is the primary downside target. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this zone. It could be caused by aggressive counter-trend buying, short-covering or profit-taking.
If $56.18 to $51.59 becomes the new short-term range then its retracement zone at $53.89 to $54.43 will become the primary upside target.
Forecast
Based on the current price at $51.85 and the earlier price action, the direction of March WTI Crude oil today will be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at $51.43.
A sustained move over $51.43 will indicate the presence of buyers. If upside momentum builds then look for a possible rally into the nearest downtrending angle at $53.18. This is the trigger point for a possible acceleration into the short-term 50% level at $53.89.
If $51.43 fails to hold as support then look for a possible acceleration to the downside with the next targets coming in at $50.29 and $50.25.
Look for volatility after the release of the EIA report at 1530 GMT and during Trump’s press conference which is expected to start at 1600 GMT.
