DXY, EUR/USD, USD/ZAR and Gold Forecast – Markets Looking for Risk Appetite to Return?

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

Where the US dollar goes, so goes the rest of the financial world. Right now, it does look like we were a little bit soft in the early part of the session, but we are starting to recover. I’ll be watching this 99 level very closely because if we start to break above it significantly, then that tells you that the dollar should be getting quite a bit of a bid, especially if we break 99.20. That would be a tell me that you need to be in the dollar and probably shorting multiple other currencies against it.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro is going back and forth during the trading session as it tries to figure out whether or not it can catch a bid. This does look like a pattern that suggests that we might get a little bit of a bounce over the next couple of days; it would not be a huge surprise. It was sold off pretty viciously as the war started. Whether or not it’s sustainable, that is an entirely different conversation, but I do think that a move towards the 50-day EMA could be possible.

What I want to see is a fresh new high for the day above 1.1660. If we get that and the US dollar index falling, which you should, that’s a pretty good sign that you might have a potential move just waiting to happen in your favor.

USD/ZAR Technical Analysis

The US dollar against the South African rand did rally a little bit, but it rolled over a bit and this might kick off a nice little carry trade opportunity. Ultimately, I think this is a market that could find its way down to 16.00 even, but it may take some time. This is a somewhat choppy market, but you do get paid to be short of it, so that’s one thing that you’re looking at. 16.25 being broken to the downside would be a nice sign that we’re breaking apart. Any failure near 16.50 would be very interesting to me as well.

Gold  Outlook

The gold market looks very much like a market that is trying to break out. We’ll just see whether we can or not. There is an area right here at $5,233. If we can break that, I’m very interested in being long. I don’t know that we will, but it certainly looks like a bottoming pattern to me, so I do think gold is getting ready to make its move yet again towards the $5,500 level. That being said, all of this is contingent on the latest headlines probably coming out of the Middle East.

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