E-mini Dow: Buyers Lightening Up Ahead of Powell Speech

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher at the mid-session on Thursday, even after giving back more than half of its earlier gains. At the opening, buyers were driven by quarterly earnings reports, but as we approached the mid-session, prices began to pull back in anticipation of a policy speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

At 15:49 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were trading 35187, up 108 or +0.31%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) was at $352.64, up $1.11 or +0.32%.

In economic news, initial claims came in slightly higher than expected at 184,000 for the week-ending April 16, showing a decline of 2,000. Dow Jones analysts estimated 182,000 first-time claims.

In other news, investors were looking to a speech from Powell, who will talk at 17:00 GMT during the International Monetary Fund Debate on the Global Economy. The discussion will be moderated by CNBC’s Sara Eisen.

Traders are hoping Powell gives some insight on the direction of interest rates after the market priced in a series of aggressive interest rate increases, while several Fed officials in recent days have talked down making any dramatic moves.

 Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high of 35413 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move through 34002 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 34179 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift the momentum lower.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the bullish side of its retracement zone at 34942 to 34397, making it support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 35079.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 35079 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a retest of the intraday high at 35413. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to challenge the February 9 main top at 35649.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 35079 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a late session break into the main Fibonacci support at 34942. Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of this level, but if it fails then be prepared for increased selling pressure into the main 50% level at 34397.