E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – August 3, 2018 Forecast

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading mixed shortly after the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. Payroll growth fell well short of expectations, but the unemployment rate dropped to a 50-year low and average hourly earnings met expectations.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 25572 on July 27.

A trade through 25572 will negate the reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 25087 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The minor trend is up. A trade through 25087 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the downswing in momentum.

The short-term range is 25572 to 25087. Its retracement zone at 25330 to 25387 is the first upside target. This zone is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the direction of the Dow today.

The main range is 24912 to 25572. Its retracement zone at 25242 to 25164 is support.

The major support is a series of retracement levels at 24925, 24775 and 24587.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early trade, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 25330 and the Fibonacci level at 25387.

A sustained move under 25330 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the Dow into 25242, followed by 25164 then 25087. Look for an acceleration to the downside if 25087 fails as support. This could drive the Dow into 24925, followed closely by 24912. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 24912.

A sustained move over 25387 will signal the presence of buyers. If upside momentum is generated by this move then look for a potential acceleration to the upside with 25572 the next major target. This is also a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Look for a choppy, two-sided trade if the Dow gets caught in the 25164 to 25387 trading range.