E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – August 9, 2019 Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 26215.
James Hyerczyk
Dow Jones Industrial Average

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. After a pair of wicked moves both up and down, traders are bracing for a fifth day of excessive volatility on Friday.

U.S.-China trade relations have been the biggest influence on the price action. Worries over a global economic slowdown drove global bond yields sharply lower earlier in the week, sending out a recession warning that rattled stock market investors. Value-seeking buyers, however, stepped in to stop the price slide, erasing all of the week’s earlier losses.

At 13:56 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 26256, down 109 or -0.41%.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at 25032 on August 1.

The main trend changes to up on a trade through 27358. This is highly unlikely, but closing on the strong side of a short-term retracement zone increasing the chances of this occurring over the near-term.

Closing on the weak side of the short-term retracement zone will indicate sellers have returned. This could trigger a retest of the main bottom at 25032.

The main range is 24626 to 27397. Its retracement zone at 26012 to 25685 is controlling the near-term direction of the index. It’s also support.

The short-term range is 27397 to 25032. Its retracement zone at 26215 to 26494 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone could determine whether buyers make a run at 27358 to 27397, or resume the downtrend with 25032 the next major target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 26215.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 26215 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out this level with enough upside momentum could drive the market through yesterday’s high at 26373 and into the short-term Fibonacci level at 26494.

Sellers could come in on the first test of 26494. However, this is also the trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending Gann angle at 26789.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 26215 will signal the presence of sellers. The initial break will be labored because of potential support at 26181 and 26162. If 26162 fails then look for the selling to extend into the main 50% level at 26012.

The 50% level at 26012 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the main Fibonacci level at 25685 the next likely target. If this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the uptrending Gann angle at 25394.

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