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James Hyerczyk
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading sharply lower shortly before the close. Earlier in the session, prices were pressured by concerns that a U.S.-China trade deal would fall apart. At the mid-session, the market posted a strong intraday rally after President Trump said a trade deal was still possible.

At 19:14 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 25740, down 270 or -1.05%. This is up from an intraday low of 25500.

Daily June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 25500 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could trigger a further decline in a pair of bottoms at 25377 and 25246.

The Dow is in no position to turn the trend back to up, however, due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, it is ripe for a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom. If formed and confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 session counter-trend rally.

The main range is 24900 to 26694. Its retracement zone at 25797 to 25585 is currently being tested. Aggressive counter-trend traders are trying to establish a support base inside this zone.

The short-term range is 25377 to 26694. Its retracement zone at 25880 to 26036 is acting like resistance and a pivot zone.

Another short-term range is 26694 to 25500. If today’s intraday rally gains traction late in the session then look for a possible retracement rally into its retracement zone at 26097 to 26238.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action and the current price at 25740, the direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 25797.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 25797 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of a Fibonacci level at 25880. The next target is yesterday’s close at 25992. Taking out this level will turn the market higher for the session, putting the Dow in a position to post a closing price reversal bottom.

After turning higher, the market could run into 50% resistance levels at 26036 and 26097. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the short-term Fibonacci level at 26238. Look for sellers to come in on the first test of 26097 to 26238.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 25797 late in the session could trigger a further break into a Fibonacci level at 25585, followed by today’s intraday low at 25500. Taking out this level will indicate the selling is getting stronger with 25377 and 25246 the next likely downside targets.

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