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James Hyerczyk
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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures closed lower on Friday, bringing an end to its five-day winning streak. After spiking to a record high on Thursday in reaction to a report that said the U.S. and China had agreed to rollback tariffs, the market posted an inside move on Friday after President Trump said he had not agreed to a tariff rollback. The inside move chart pattern typically indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

On Friday, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 27631, down 36 or -0.13%.

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Daily December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 27739 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The nearest main bottom is 26588. A trade through this bottom will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely today, however, due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, traders should be on alert for a closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 27337 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 27337 to 27739. Its 50% level or pivot is acting like support.

The second minor range is 26847 to 27739. Its 50% level or pivot at 27293 is another potential support level.

The short-term range is 26588 to 27739. Its 50% level at 27164 is also potential support.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 27631, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 27538.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 27538 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the all-time high at 27739. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 27538 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets a minor bottom at 27337 and a minor pivot at 27293.

Side Notes

Monday is a U.S. Federal holiday. The Treasury market is closed, but the stock exchanges are open. However, trading volume could be well below average so be careful buying strength and selling weakness. It’s easy to get caught in a bull or bear trap on low volume days.

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