E-mini Dow: Sustained Move Over 34942 Targets 35649

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up shortly before the close on Tuesday, boosted by signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Gains were capped, however, as a widely tracked part of the Treasury yield curve flashed warning signs for the economy as it neared inversion.

At 18:04 GMT, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 35038, up 185 or +0.53%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is at $351.25, up $1.76 or +0.50%.

Reuters reported that Moscow decided to drastically cut military activity around Kyiv and northern Ukraine, while Ukraine proposed adopting a neutral status but with international guarantees that it would be protected from attack.

In economic news, data showed U.S. consumer confidence edged higher in March from a year-low reading a month earlier, with Americans’ assessment of current economic conditions improving on the back of a healthy job market, offsetting concerns over inflation.

Meanwhile, the spread between U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed below five basis points, moving another step closer to inversion, as traders bet that faster rate hikes would hurt the U.S. economy over the longer-term.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the last main top at 34950. A trade through the intraday high at 35281 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 34214 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 34445 will change the minor trend to down and shift momentum.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the strong side of its retracement zone, making it support.

The short-term range is 35649 to 32086. Its retracement zone at 34288 to 33868 is additional support.

The combination of the two retracement zones creates a support cluster at 34397 to 34288. The recent price action suggests this area is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones industrial Average into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at 34942.

A sustained move over 34942 could trigger a surge into the next main top at 35649. A sharp break under 34942 will target 34397 – 34288.