E-mini Dow Traders Could Take a Run at 34942 Early Monday

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose Friday to close out a winning week even as investors weighed interest rate hikes and war in Ukraine. The Blue Chip Average posted a 0.36% gain, while notching its second consecutive winning week.

On Friday, the June E-mini Dow settled at 34759, up 155 or +0.45%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished at $348.54, up $1.48 or +0.43%.

The E-mini Dow is now up 2.86% in March, more than erasing its losses since Russia invaded Ukraine late last month. The rebound has come even as the war in Ukraine continues and interest rates shoot higher, with the Federal Reserve set to hike rates several more times this year.

U.S. Treasury yields jumped to nearly a three-year high, helping to boost the shares of financial companies. Travelers Companies rose 1.92%. JPMorgan Chase & Co gained 0.87% and American Express posted a 0.74% rise.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. It was reaffirmed on Friday when buyers took out the previous main top at 34792. This makes 34950 the next target. A trade through 34214 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The E-mini Dow finished inside its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone. Trader resistance to this area will determine the near-term direction of the market.

The intermediate range is 35649 to 32086. Its retracement zone at 34288 to 33868 is potential support.

Short-Term Outlook

The near-term direction of the June E-mini Dow will be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at 34942 and the 50% level at 34397.

Look for the upside momentum to continue on a sustained move over 34942. A new downside bias could begin on a sustained move under 34397.

Trading inside 34397 to 34942 will indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.