E-mini Dow Trend Change Puts 33684 – 33306 on Radar

June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell on Wednesday will losses led by technology and other growth stocks, after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting sharpened investors’ focus on the U.S. central bank’s plans to fight inflation.

Minutes of the Fed’s March 15-16 meeting showed policymakers rallying around plans to cut the central bank’s massive balance sheet as soon as next month.

On Wednesday, June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures settled at 34399, down 151 or -0.44%. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) finished at $344.86, down $1.48 or -0.43%.

The Fed minutes showed officials discussed how they want to reduce their trillions in bond holdings at the March meeting, with a consensus around $95 billion a month. The minutes also pointed to potential rate hikes of 50 basis points at upcoming meetings.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down on Wednesday when sellers took out the last main bottom at 34437. A trade through 35015 will change the main trend to up.

The main range is 36708 to 32086. The market is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at 34397 to 34942, making it resistance.

The short-term range is 32086 to 35281. Its retracement zone at 33684 to 33306 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average early Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 34397.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34397 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a test of the next main bottom at 34214.

Taking out 34214 will reaffirm the downtrend. This could trigger an acceleration into the short-term retracement zone at 33684 to 33306. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area, but if 33306 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the next main bottom at 32578.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34397 will signal the return of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the main Fibonacci level at 34942, followed by the main top at 35015.