E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – August 19, 2019 Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 7661.50, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7638.25.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher early Monday. The shift in investor sentiment is being fueled by an easing of concerns over a U.S. recession following a stronger than expected U.S. retail sales report last Thursday.

Although traders are a little nervous over the lack of progress in trade talks between the United States and China, they seem to be pleased that President Trump delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports until mid-December. The news that the European Central Bank (ECB) may be planning to announce aggressive stimulus moves in order to perk up the Euro Zone economy is also underpinning the index.

At 04:55 GMT, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 7661.50, up 49.75 or +0.65%.

Daily September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but a pair of closing price reversal bottoms at 7224.50 and 7388.25 is helping to generate upside momentum. A new secondary higher bottom also formed at 7388.25, supporting the upside bias.

A trade through 7789.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 7388.25 will reaffirm the downtrend with the next target the main bottom at 7224.50.

The main range is 6969.00 to 8051.75. Its retracement zone at 7510.25 to 7382.50 is controlling the longer-term direction of the index. This is also support.

The short-term range is 8051.75 to 7224.50. Its retracement zone is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone could determine whether the trend changes to up, or the selling pressure resumes.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 7661.50, the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 7638.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 7638.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move can create enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the short-term Fibonacci level at 7735.75, followed closely by a downtrending Gann angle at 7763.75 and a main top at 7789.50.

Taking out 7789.50 will change the trend to up. This could trigger an acceleration into an uptrending Gann angle at 7833.00 and a downtrending Gann angle at 7907.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 7638.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The daily chart is wide open to the downside under this level with the main 50% level at 7510.25 the next target. This is another trigger point for a break into a support cluster at 7401.00, 7388.25 and 7382.50. Look out to the downside if this support area fails to hold.

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