E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – July 4, 2017 Forecast

With the NASDAQ Composite cash market closed for the U.S. Independence Day holiday, we’ll take some time today to look at the weekly September E-mini NASDAQ-100 chart. It gives a clearer picture of the recent price action without all the noise found on the daily chart.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the weekly closing price reversal top at 5898.75 from the week-ending June 9.

This potentially bearish chart pattern often leads to a 2 to 3 week correction. The primary target of the chart pattern is 50% of the last rally. Based on the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, we have the potential for a steep sell-off.

A trade through 5898.75 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 5702.25 and Monday’s price action, the direction of the E-mini NASDAQ-100 will be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending angle at 5674.00.

A sustained move under 5674.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. The weekly chart is wide open to the downside with the next major target zone coming in at 5274.25 to 5127.00. An uptrending angle passes through this zone at 5162.00, making it a valid downside target also.

On the upside, the first target angle is 5770.75. This is followed by angles at 5834.75, 5866.75 and 5882.75.

If there is a short-term rally then 50% of the first break will be the key level to watch. If this market is headed lower then this price level should stop the rally, a secondary lower top should form and the market should begin another leg down.