E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Big Decision for Traders at 3431.25 – 3465.50

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower in a choppy trade on Thursday. The index opened higher on the back of a strong rally in the technology sector, but gave back those gains following the release of economic data that pointed to a choppy rebound.

Apple Inc, the biggest U.S. company by market capitalization, rose 1.8%, while Tesla Inc jumped 6.1%. Other heavyweights Amazon.com Inc, Microsoft Corp and Facebook Inc were among major boosts to the S&P 500.

At 15:16 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3395.00, down 5.25 or -0.15%.

In other news, weekly initial claims for state unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 884,000 for the week ended September 5, matching the number of applications received in the prior week as layoffs and furloughs persisted across industries.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, Wednesday’s minor closing price reversal bottom may be signaling a shift in momentum to the upside.

A trade through the closing price reversal top at 3576.25 will negate the bearish chart pattern and signal a change in trend. A move through 3286.00 will negate the minor reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 2916.50 to 3576.25. Its retracement zone at 3246.75 to 3168.75 is the nearest major downside target.

The short-term range is 3576.25 to 3286.00. Its retracement zone at 3431.25 to 3465.50 is the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Wednesday’s high at 3413.75.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out 3413.75 with conviction will confirm the closing price reversal bottom. The first upside target is the short-term 50% level at 3431.25. Overtaking this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target the Fibonacci level at 3465.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3413.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is 3350.00. This is followed by 3286.00.

Side Notes

Trader reaction to 3431.25 to 3465.50 will determine the near-term direction of the index. Sellers are going to try to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. Buyers are going to try to take out 3465.50 in order to generate the upside momentum needed to challenge 3576.25.

If sellers are successful then look for a 50% retracement of the first leg up. This level is 3350.00. If this level fails then the selling is likely to extend into 3286.00.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.