E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Breakout Over 3231.00 or Pullback into 3111.50

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher on low volume shortly ahead of the cash market opening on Wednesday. Trading could be subdued until 18:00 GMT when the Fed releases its interest rate and monetary policy decisions. These will be followed by press conference and policymaker forecasts. Traders are expecting the Fed to comment on the state of the economy and status of any further stimulus.

Investors will be looking for clues from the Fed as to the reality of a V-shaped economic recovery or whether stock market investors have gone ahead of themselves in assuming a V-shaped recovery.

At 13:49 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3203.25, down 2.25 or -0.07%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 3231.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a trade through 2903.75. This is highly unlikely but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2992.00 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 2992.00 to 3231.25. Its 50% level at 3111.50 is the first downside target.

The main range is 2903.75 to 3231.25. Its 50% level at 3067.50 is the second downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3231.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3231.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This will also mean the index has turned higher for the year. If this move continues to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 3397.75 over the near-term.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3231.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible near-term correction into 3111.50, followed by 3067.50.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.