E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Close Under 3958.25 Forms Reversal Top

June E-mini S&P 500 index futures are posting a choppy, two-sided trade on Tuesday as most of the major players remain on the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s two-day monetary policy meeting.

Investors are expected to pore over whatever the Fed has to say about the rise in Treasury yields, which have gained on bets that economic growth and inflation could prompt a faster-than-expected normalization of monetary policy.

At 18:14 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3954.75, down 3.50 or -0.09%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trade through Monday’s high signaled a resumption of the uptrend. A move through today’s intraday high at 3970.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The main trend will change to down on a move through 3710.50. This is highly unlikely, but with the index up eight sessions from its last main bottom, it is inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor range is 3710.50 to 3970.75. Its 50% level at 3840.50 is the nearest support target.

The short-term range is 3648.00 to 3970.75. Its retracement zone at 3809.25 to 3771.25 is the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Tuesday will be determined by trader reaction to 3958.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3958.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the intraday high at 3970.75. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3958.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a sell-off into the close.

A close under 3958.25 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day sell-off with 3840.50 the next potential downside target.