E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – December 13, 2016 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are called slightly better shortly before the cash market opening. Volume and volatility are expected to come in below average today as investors prepare for Wednesday’s key U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy announcements.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside with the formation of a closing price reversal top at 2264.75 on Tuesday.

A trade through 2246.75 will confirm the potentially bearish chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The short-term range is 2174.25 to 2264.75. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 2219.50. This is the primary downside target today.

Forecast

Based on Monday’s close at 2250.50 and the earlier price action, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s low at 2246.75.

Holding above 2246.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could drive the index into yesterday’s closing price reversal top at 2264.75. Overtaking this level will negate the chart pattern. This could generate enough upside momentum to overcome the steep uptrending angle at 2270.25.

Crossing to the strong side of the uptrending angle at 2270.25 will put the index in an extremely bullish position.

Taking out 2246.75 with conviction will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next potential targets 2222.25 and 2219.50.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2246.75 today. Trader reaction to this level will tell us if the buyers have returned or if the sellers are increasing their pressure.