E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Falling Deeper into Bear Market Territory

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are down sharply at the mid-session on Thursday, moving deeper into bear market territory as investors worried the Federal Reserve’s more aggressive approach toward inflation would bring the economy into a recession.

At 15:08 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3663.00, down 130.50 or -3.44%.  The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $366.63, down $12.57 or -3.31%.

All of the 11 major S&P sectors fell in the morning trade. Energy and consumer discretionary sectors were the top losers, down 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The downtrend was reaffirmed earlier in the session when sellers took out the minor bottom at 3708.50. The trade through the March 4, 2021 main bottom at 3678.75 reaffirmed the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A move through 3843.00 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 3793.50 will determine the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3793.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out the intraday low at 3658.75 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This would make the February 1, 2021 main bottom at 3614.75 the next downside target.

If 3614.75 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the December 21, 2020 main bottom at 3554.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the long-term 50% level at 3452.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3793.50 will signal the return of buyers. Well, maybe some bottom-pickers, but mostly shorts baling out. This would put the market in a position to form a potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom.

A trade through 3843.00 will shift momentum to the upside and could trigger an acceleration into about 3956.75 to 4015.25.