E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 12, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are surging on Tuesday at the mid-session in reaction to optimism over the start of U.S.-China trade talks and the news that another government shutdown may have been averted. The timing of the deal to avert the government shutdown is particularly important since it lifted a veil of uncertainty that was threatening to cap gains or even drive prices lower over the near-term. The start of the trade talks may be underpinning prices, but the news isn’t strong enough to trigger a breakout to the upside.

At 1639 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2740.25, up 32.00 or +1.19%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous main top at 2737.75. The trend will change to down when sellers take out 2680.75.

The index is also trading on the strong side of a long-term retracement zone at 2711.50 to 2636.00. Holding above this zone will put the index in a bullish position. This zone remains support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the previous top at 2737.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2737.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this continues to generate enough upside momentum then we could eventually see a retest of the December 3 main top at 2819.00.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold above 2737.75 will signal the return of sellers. This will also indicate that the selling is stronger than the buying at current price levels. This typically means that the buying was fueled by short-covering and buy stops rather than aggressive buying. In this case, we could see an eventual break back into the major Fibonacci level at 2711.50.