E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 13, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market opening. The strength is being fueled by hope of a trade deal between the United States and China after President Trump said he would be willing to extend the deadline to reach a deal beyond March 1. Investors also like the fact that another government shutdown has been averted although Trump still has to sign the bill. In other news, consumer inflation came in unchanged for a third straight month. This confirms the Fed’s muted outlook for inflation.

At 14:14 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading at 2753.25, up 8.50 or +0.30%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Tuesday when buyers took out the last main top at 2737.75. A trade through 2680.75 will change the main trend to down.

The index is also trading on the bullish side of a major retracement zone at 2711.50 to 2636.00. This is helping to generate the upside momentum. This zone is also support.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the former top at 2737.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2737.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Furthermore, it will also indicate the buying is being fueled by real buying rather than short-covering and buy stops.

The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with no major resistance until the December 3 main top at 2819.00.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to hold above 2737.75 will signal the return of sellers. This could trigger a break into the steep uptrending Gann angle at 2728.75. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this level.

Taking out 2728.75 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets the Fibonacci level at 2711.50 and the uptrending Gann angle at 2704.75.

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