E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – June 25, 2019 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are drifting lower shortly before the cash market opening. We’re not seeing shorting pressure, but rather long-liquidation and position-squaring ahead of a series of Fed speakers today and the key meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend. Tensions between the US and Iran don’t seem to be an issue at this time.

At 12:32 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2948.00, down 4.00 or -0.13%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on Friday and its confirmation on Monday.

A trade through 2969.25 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2871.50. I think the trend is safe for now, but there is room for a normal 50% to 61.8% correction.

The short-term range is 2871.50 to 2969.25. If the selling pressure continues then look for a move into its retracement zone at 2920.25 to 2908.75. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to return on a test of this area.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term downtrending Gann angle at 2953.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2953.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is an uptrending Gann angle at 2935.00. Look for buyers on the first test of this angle.

If 2935.00 fails as support then look for the selling to continue into the short-term 50% level at 2920.25 then the short-term Fibonacci level at 2908.75, followed closely by an uptrending Gann angle at 2903.50.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 2953.25 will signal the presence of buyers. The next target angle drops in at 2961.25. This is the last important resistance angle before the 2969.25 main top. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.