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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index
E-mini S&P 500 Index

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower late in the session on Monday, but clawing back most of its earlier losses. The benchmark index tumbled on Monday as fears over a new strain of the coronavirus that has shut down much of Britain overshadowed a $900 billion stimulus package deal.

The strain, which is said to be up to 70% more transmissible than the original, forced major European countries to shut their borders with the U.K. and sowed fears of further economic disruptions.

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At 19:08 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3684.50, up 21.75 or -0.59%. This is up from a low of 3596.00.

In other news, electric-car maker Tesla Inc., which has soared more than 730% so far this year, fell 5.7% ahead of its much anticipated debut into the benchmark S&P 500 Index.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down earlier today when sellers took out 3620.75. The lack of follow-through to the downside suggests the move may have been fueled by sell stops rather than new selling so the change in trend is weak.

A trade through 3724.00 will change the main trend to up, while a move through 3596.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

More importantly, the early sell-off has put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor range is 3724.00 to 3596.00. Its 50% level at 3660.00 is a key level to watch late in the session.

The short-term range is 3497.25 to 3724.00. Its retracement zone at 3610.50 to 3583.75 is support. This zone stopped the selling earlier today at 3596.00.

The main range is 3216.25 to 3724.00. Its retracement zone at 3470.00 to 3410.25 is a value area.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3660.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3660.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 3724.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3660.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the price cluster at 3610.50, 3596.00 and 3583.75.

Side Notes

A close under 3706.25 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could lead to a 2 to 3 correction or a break into the main retracement zone at 3470.00 to 3410.25.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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