E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – March 6, 2017 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Today’s earlier price action indicates that the current three day break has erased nearly all of the gains from the “Trump Speech Rally”.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, but momentum is starting to sway to the downside. A trade through 2401.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A trade through 2357.50 will turn the minor trend down. This is followed by another minor bottom at 2349.50. Taking out this level could trigger a steep sell-off.

The minor range is 2349.50 to 2401.00. Its retracement zone is 2375.25 to 2369.00. This zone is controlling the short-term direction of the market. The index is currently trading inside this zone.

The main range is 2262.25 to 2401.00. If the market begins to accelerate to the downside then its retracement zone at 2331.50 to 2315.25 will become the primary downside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 2374.75 and the earlier price action, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the price cluster at 2377.00 to 2373.00. Inside the cluster is the 50% level at 2375.25.

A sustained move over 2377.00 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at 2389.00. It should provide resistance on the first test. This is also a trigger point for an acceleration into the next downtrending angle at 2395.00.

A sustained move under the angle at 2373.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into 2369.00.

The daily chart opens up to the downside under 2369.00. The next target is the longer-term uptrending angle at 2354.50.

Look for a bullish tone on a sustained move over 2377.00 and a bearish tone under 2373.00. Try to avoid getting chopped up inside these two angles.