E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Set Up for Closing Price Reversal Top

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the release of a U.S. consumer inflation report at 12:30 GMT and the cash market opening at 13:30 GMT. The benchmark index erased earlier gains in a quick plunge after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it’s recommending a pause in the Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine after reported cases of blood clotting.

At 12:06 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4108.50, down 11.75 or -0.29%.

Economists polled by Dow Jones are projecting the headline consumer inflation index to rise by 0.5% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out the previous high.

A trade through 3843.25 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but the early price action suggests the index may be poised for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend, but it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor range is 3843.25 to 4127.00. If a correction generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 3985.00 to 3951.50.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4120.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4120.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 4127.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4120.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could put pressure on the index.

A close under 4120.25 will actually form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed on Wednesday, this could trigger a 2 to 3 day correction with the minor 50% level at 3985.00 the nearest potential downside target.