E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Taking Out 4095.00 Changes Main Trend to Up

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading sharply higher at the mid-session on Thursday after upbeat annual forecasts from several retailers. The news offset data that confirmed the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter. Nonetheless, investors interpreted this news as somewhat bullish since it likely means the Fed will refrain from increasing rates too aggressively.

At 16:27 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4057.75, up 81.00 or +2.04%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is trading $405.56, up $8.19 or +2.06%.

All of the 11 major S&P sectors advanced, with consumer discretionary up 4.1%, followed by a 1.9% rise in the financial sector.

In stock related news, Macy’s surged 16.2% after the department store raised its annual profit forecast, as party-wear demand rebounds.

Dollar General Corp and Dollar Tree gained 11.7% and 18.4% respectively, after lifting their annual sales forecasts, as more Americans turn to discount store shopping with inflation at a four-decade high.

In economic news, the Commerce Department’s report showed U.S. GDP fell at a 1.5% annualized rate last quarter amid a record trade deficit and a sequential decline in the pace of inventory accumulation. The economy grew at a robust 6.9% in the fourth quarter.

Separately, weekly jobless claims fell to 210,000 last week, consistent with a tight labor market despite rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 4095.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 3807.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is controlling the momentum. A move through 3872.00 will change the minor trend to down.

The short-term range is 4303.00 to 3807.50. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 4055.25 to 4113.75.

The main range is 4509.00 to 3807.50. If the main trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 4158.25 to 4241.00 will become the primary upside target.

The minor range is 4095.00 to 3807.50. Its pivot at 3951.25 is the nearest support.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 4055.25 will determine the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4055.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into the main top at 4095.00, followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at 4113.75. This is the last potential resistance before the main retracement zone target at 4158.25 to 4241.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4055.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible pullback into 3976.75, followed by 3951.25.