E-mini S&P Upside Momentum Could Strengthen Over 4446.25

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening. The price action suggests investors may have absorbed the Fed’s widely expected March rate hike and are ready to move on until they see how aggressive the central bank will be in the future. Investors also seem to be taking the Ukraine crisis in stride, perhaps believing there will be no threat to the U.S. economy.

At 14:58 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4402.00, up 60.50 or +1.39%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $440.06, up $6.68 or +1.54%.

Investors expect the speed at which the Fed tightens policy to be the major determinant of risk sentiment in the coming months, although the U.S. central bank has said how quickly it hikes will depend on economic data and especially inflation.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on Monday.

A trade through 4212.75 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 4739.50.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 4446.25 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

On the upside, the first resistance is 4419.50. This is followed by a series of potential resistance levels at 4476.25, 4510.50, 4538.25 and 4580.75.

On the downside, the first support is 4327.50. This is followed by a retracement zone at 4266.00 to 4137.50. This area stopped the selling at 4212.75 on January 24.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday will likely be determined by trader reaction to 4329.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4329.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at 4419.50 and 4446.25.

Taking out 4419.50 and 4446.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. However, look for sellers to re-emerge on a test of 4476.25 – 4580.75. Since the main trend is down, they may try to form a secondary lower top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4329.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a quick test of 4327.50. if this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into 4266.00, followed by the support cluster at 4215.00 – 4212.75.