E-mini S&P Weakens Under 4530.50 with 4447.00 Next Target

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching lower at the mid-session on Friday as investors assessed a new quarter of trading and a troublesome bond market recession indicator. Meanwhile, investors showed little reaction to today’s U.S. labor market report that came in below expectations, but not enough to stop the Fed from aggressively raising rates at its next meeting in May.

At 15:34 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4525.00, down 5.75 or -0.13%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $451.00, down $0.64 or -0.14%.

Stocks for now shook off a recession signal from the bond market that was triggered after the closing bell Thursday and again on Friday morning. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019.

For some investors, it’s a signal that the economy is headed for a possible recession, though the inverted yield curve does not predict exactly when it will happen and history shows it could be more than a year away or longer.

Investors were also digesting the official jobs report for March, which showed the U.S. economy adding 431,000 jobs. The result was below the composite estimate of 490,000 from Dow Jones but above some of the lower end estimates.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4631.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4129.50 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but there is room to the downside for a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement.

The main range is 4800.00 to 4094.25. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 4530.50 to 4447.00. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 4094.25 to 4631.00. If the main zone fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the short-term retracement zone at 4362.50 to 4299.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4530.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4530.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at 4447.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4530.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum this could lead to a near-term retest of 4631.00.