ETH Bulls Target a Return to $1,950 on Staking Inflows and Withdrawals

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader crypto market in negative territory on Friday, sliding by 4.89% to end the day at $1,848.
• Staking statistics failed to deliver support, with US recession fears and US government scrutiny weighing on investor sentiment.
• The technical indicators remain bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,750.

Ethereum (ETH) slid by 4.89% on Friday. Reversing a 0.41% gain from Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,848. Significantly, ETH wrapped up the day at sub-$1,900 for the first time since April 11.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to a first-hour high of $1,957 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,979, ETH fell to a late low of $1,825. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,910 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,878 to end the day at $1,848.

ETH Bucked the Broader Market Trend on Staking and Withdrawal Statistics

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows slipped from 100,544 ETH on Thursday to 110,384 on Friday. The elevated ETH inflows came despite recessionary fears sending ETH and the broader crypto market into the red.

Total value staked figures also delivered bullish signals, rising through Friday and this morning despite the Friday crypto sell-off.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 0.827 million ETH, equivalent to approximately $1.53 billion. Significantly, the withdrawal profile was bullish, with TotalUnlocks projecting modest ETH principal withdrawals throughout the Saturday session.

The withdrawal projections, elevated staking inflows, and an upward trend in the total value staked were bullish price signals.

However, market sentiment toward the US economy, Fed monetary policy, and the US government’s anti-crypto drive overshadowed upbeat ETH staking statistics and withdrawal profiles.

On Friday, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen delivered remarks on financial stability, focusing on nonbanks that include crypto-related firms. The threat of more oversight and the ever-present threat of a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory to bring inflation to target were negatives.

In April, the US services PMI increased from 52.6 to 53.7, with the manufacturing PMI up from 49.2 to 50.4. The better-than-expected PMIs supported a more hawkish Fed in May, raising the prospects of a June hike.

The Day Ahead

ETH staking statistics and withdrawal profile actuals and projections will continue to influence. A reward-weighted ETH withdrawal profile and an upward trend in ETH staking inflows would be bullish.

However, SEC v Ripple case updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news will also influence.

Ethereum Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 0.40% to $1,856. A range-bound start to the day saw ETH fall to an early low of $1,845 before rising to a high of $1,857.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to move through the $1,877 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,928 and the Friday high of $1,957. A return to $1,900 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $2,009. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,141.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,796 in play. However, barring another crypto market sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,700. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,745 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,613.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,885. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 200-day ($1,885) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,928) to give the bulls a run at the 100-day ($1,956) and 50-day ($1,980) EMAs. However, failure to move through the 200-day EMA ($1,885) would leave S1 ($1,796) in view. A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.