ETH Eyes a Return to $1,900 to Target $1,950 on Withdrawal Stats

Key Insights:

• On Saturday, ETH joined the broader market in the red, falling by 0.73% to end the day at $1,893.
• A sharp decline in staking inflows and net staking balance contributed to the bearish session.
• However, the technical indicators remain bullish, signaling a run at $2,000.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.73% on Saturday. Partially reversing a 2.42% gain from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,893. Despite the bearish session, ETH avoided sub-$1,850 for the first time in four sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to a first-hour high of $1,910. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,929, ETH fell to a late-session low of $1,882. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,866, ETH found late support to end the day at $1,893.

Staking Statistics and Withdrawal Profile Weighed

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 220,512 ETH on Friday to 63,456 on Saturday. While down sharply from Friday, the inflow levels were consistent with other weekends.

The total value staked continued to rise but at a slower pace.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals holding above normal levels. Withdrawal projections for the morning session turned bullish despite an expected spike, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to return to below-normal levels.

On Saturday, the net ETH staking balance slid by 41.3% to a surplus of 234,960 ETH, equivalent to $444.04 million. Deposits totaled 240,350 ETH versus withdrawals of 5,390 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 68,220 ETH, equivalent to approximately $129.02 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 8.50%, down 4.71% over 24 hours.

There were no crypto events to weigh on market sentiment, with profit-taking contributing to the pullback.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Sunday for ETH. There are no US economic indicators for investors to consider, leaving ETH in the hands of staking and withdrawal statistics and the crypto news wires.

Beyond the ETH statistics, investors should track the crypto news wires for SEC v Ripple updates and Binance and Coinbase (COIN)-related news. SEC Chair Gary Gensler and CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam commentary would also move the dial.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.05% to $1,892. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,894 before falling to a low of $1,885.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to move through the $1,895 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,908. A return to $1,900 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,923 and resistance at $1,950. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1.951.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,880 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,850. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,867 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,839.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,875. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($1,880) and the 50-day ($1,875) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,908) to target R2 ($1,923). However, a fall through S1 ($1,880) and the 50-day ($1,875) would bring S2 ($1,867) into view.

A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.