ETH Looks for a Return to $1,250 to Bring $1,300 into Play

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) had mixed fortunes on Saturday, with BTC extending its losing streak to three sessions.
• Ethereum network updates continued to resonate as investors waited on news from FTX debtors and creditors.
• After a mixed Saturday, it has been a bullish Sunday morning, with investor resilience strong despite lingering uncertainty.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.50% on Saturday. Reversing a 0.33% loss from Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,205. ETH wrapped up the day at $1,200 for the second time in seven sessions.

After a bullish morning, ETH rose to an early afternoon high of $1,235. ETH broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,214 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,229. However, a bearish afternoon saw ETH fall to a late low of $1,196 before wrapping up the day at $1,205. ETH avoided the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,177.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) slipped by 0.36%. Following a 0.52% loss on Friday, BTC ended the day at $16,460. Notably, BTC avoided sub-$16,000 for the fourth consecutive session.

A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,697. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,639 before falling to a late low of $16,389. However, steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,376, BTC found late support to end the day at $16,460.

Ethereum network updates resonated into the weekend, with ETH holding onto the $1,200 handle.

On Thursday, the Ethereum Foundation announced the next set of post-Merge and transition to PoS upgrades. Set to take place in H2 2023, a feature of the Shanghai hard fork will be the Beacon Chain Staked Ether (ETH). The hard fork will allow users with pre-Merge-staked ETH to access the tokens and rewards.

While the announcement was positive, the developers provided no timelines. Further updates on the Shanghai hard fork will provide ETH price movement.

For BTC and the broader market, returning investors from the Thanksgiving holidays could support a breakout afternoon session. This morning, the BTC Fear & Greed Index moved out of the Extreme Fear zone for the first time since the collapse of FTX.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was up 1.17% to $1,219. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,204 to a high of $1,223.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid the $1,212 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,228 and the Saturday high of $1,235. An ETH return to $1,230 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to provide support.

In the event of an extended rally, ETH would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,251. Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,290.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,189 into play. However, barring an extended afternoon sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,150. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,173 should limit the downside. The third Major Support Level sits at $1,134.

News of more crypto platforms freezing withdrawals would bring sub-$1,100 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,231. The 50-day EMA narrowed to the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA slipped back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A move through R1 ($1,228) and the 100-day EMA ($1,231) would support a run at R2 ($1,251). However, a slide through the 50-day EMA ($1,195) would leave ETH under pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.67% to $16,571. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $16,452 to a high of $16,603 before easing back.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,515 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,642 and the Saturday high of $16,697. A return to $16,600 would signal a bullish session. However, BTC would need friendly FTX-linked news updates to support a breakout session. A lack of news could see BTC move within tight ranges.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,823 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,131.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,334 into play. Barring an extended sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,207 should limit the downside. However, negative FTX-related news could send BTC to sub-$16,000.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,899.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. This morning, bitcoin sat at the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,545. The 50-day EMA flattened on the 100-day EMA, while the 100-day EMA eased back from the 200-day EMA, delivering mixed signals.

A breakout from the 50-day EMA ($16,545) would support a move through R1 ($16,642) to target R2 ($16,823) and $17,000. However, a failure to break out from the 50-day EMA ($16,545) would leave S1 ($16,334) in play.