ETH Withdrawal Profile Sends Bearish Signals and Sub-$1,800.

Key Insights:

• On Thursday, ETH joined the broader market in positive territory, gaining 0.71% to end the day at $1,846.
• Binance news and staking statistics provided support.
• However, the technical indicators remained bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,750.

Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.71% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 2.76% fall from Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,846. Despite the bullish session, ETH fell short of the $1,900 handle for the fourth consecutive session.

Tracking the broader market, ETH fell to an early morning low of $1,829. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,803, ETH rose to a late afternoon high of $1,862. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,881, ETH eased back to end the day at $1,846.

Staking Statistics and US Jobless Claims Offset the Fed Effect

US economic indicators drew interest in the afternoon. A larger-than-expected rise in US jobless claims drove demand for riskier assets. Initial jobless claims rose from 233k to 261k. There was increased sensitivity to the latest claims figures following the unexpected rise in US unemployment.

However, the stats didn’t deliver a breakout session, with the markets uncertain about the Fed’s policy goals for July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June 25-basis point Fed interest rate hike stands at 25.2% versus 52.3% for a 25-basis point hike in July.

News of Binance adjusting its response to the SEC filings also delivered support.

Staking Statistics Turn Bullish As Binance Adjusts SEC Response

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 79,136 ETH on Wednesday to 110,976 on Thursday. Significantly, staking inflow breached the 100,000 level, a bullish price signal.

The total value staked rose at a more marked pace, with the staking statistics and bullish ETH session providing support.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bullish, with principal withdrawals below normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were bearish, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to reach higher levels.

On Wednesday, the net ETH staking balance increased by 19.22% to a surplus of 83,890 ETH, equivalent to $156.08 million. Deposits totaled 87,360 ETH versus withdrawals of 3,460 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 139,640 ETH, equivalent to approximately $258.06 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 6.84%, down 0.15% over 24 hours.

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Friday session for ETH and the broader crypto market. There are no US economic indicators or FOMC members to consider. The lack of influence from the US economic calendar will leave ETH in the hands of the staking statistics and withdrawal profile.

However, investors should continue to monitor SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase (COIN) updates and related news, which would move the dial.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.61% to $1,835. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,850 before falling to a low of $1,827. The First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,829 delivered early support.

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

ETH needs to move through the $1,846 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,862. A move through the morning high of $1,850 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,879 and resistance at $1,900. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,912.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,829 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,800. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,813 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,780.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,855. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A bearish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day and 200-day EMAs would support a fall through S1 ($1,829) to target S2 (1,813). However, a breakout from the EMAs and R1 ($1,862) would give the bulls a run at R2 ($1,879) and $1,900. An ETH breakout from the 50-day EMA ($1,859) would send a bullish signal.