Ethereum Price Prediction: Can ETH Invalidate the $3,500 Bearish Target?

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), edged higher on Monday after defending its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA), despite breaking below a key chart pattern last week.

The second-largest cryptocurrency rebounded by over 2% in the past 24 hours to around $3,920, recovering from lows near $3,850.

The bounce has kept hopes alive that ETH could retest higher resistance levels in October, even as its symmetrical triangle breakdown points to a bearish target closer to $3,500.

Let’s examine.

Ethereum’s Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown: Bearish or Fakeout?

Ethereum’s latest price action centers around its multimonth symmetrical triangle, a pattern formed by converging trendlines of lower highs and higher lows.

Typically, a break outside the triangle defines the next major move. Last week, ETH slipped beneath its lower boundary, suggesting the structure has resolved to the downside.

The measured move target of this breakdown points to $3,500, a zone that also coincides with prior accumulation support from early summer.

But the breakdown is not yet decisive.

ETH has vigorously defended its 100-day EMA at nearly $3,850. It suggests bulls are unwilling to concede ground fully, and a corrective bounce could be underway. A retest of the former triangle support—now flipped into resistance—sits around $4,580.

From a trader’s lens, such retests often act as “confirmation moves.” If ETH fails to reclaim that barrier and turns lower, the bearish thesis strengthens, setting up a renewed slide toward $3,500.

On the other hand, a decisive rebound above $3,850 followed by sustained momentum could invalidate the bearish setup entirely.

In that case, Ethereum would be back inside its multimonth triangle, opening the door for a push toward its projected upside target at $5,800, a fresh record high.

Ethereum Fundamentals: Shutdown Uncertainty Lifts Risk Appetite

Ethereum’s bounce comes against a backdrop of rising political drama in Washington. The odds of a  US government shutdown surged to over 60% on prediction markets this week, with lawmakers deadlocked over spending bills.

A shutdown risks closing federal agencies and delaying crucial economic data such as nonfarm payrolls and inflation reports, muddying the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

That uncertainty has already weighed on the US dollar, which slipped lower as traders priced in weaker near-term economic visibility. US stock futures, by contrast, edged higher on Monday as investors rotated into riskier assets.

Ethereum tracked the same move, rebounding more than 2% to around $3,920 after defending its 100-day EMA support.

Ethereum’s Downside Liquidity Fully Absorbed: Short Squeeze Ahead?

Ethereum is nearing a setup where downside risks look largely exhausted, raising the odds of a sharp squeeze higher.

CryptoQuant data shows that liquidation activity has cooled after months of turbulence. Most clusters of downside liquidations have already been absorbed, leaving far fewer targets below the current price.

By contrast, sizable liquidation pools sit above, meaning even a modest rally could trigger cascading short liquidations.

At the same time, the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio hovers just under 1.0, reflecting persistent sell pressure.

Historically, when this metric bottoms and reverses, Ethereum has often staged powerful rebounds.