Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Struggles to Clear 200D EMA Again – $2,700 Next?

 

Ethereum (ETH) started the week on the wrong foot, booking a 4.4% loss in the past 24 hours as the token has once again rejected a move above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

Trading volumes skyrocketed by 148% during this period, currently accounting for 7% of the asset’s circulating market. This reflects a spike in selling pressure triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

Crypto long liquidations spiked to $786 million in the past 24 hours alone, with ETH being responsible for a total of $120 million as the price has dipped in 4 out of the last 5 trading sessions.

This week, the market will be digesting a bunch of data, including quarter-on-quarter GDP growth figures and the PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation.

Hence, we may expect some volatility on Thursday after this economic data is released. In addition, any development on the tariff front may have a dramatic impact on the direction of the price as well.

Ethereum Weekly Transactions Hit a New All-Time High

Even though the price of ETH has been consolidating lately, on-chain data from Artemis shows a strong increase in transaction volumes within the Ethereum network. Weekly transactions hit a new record of 17.1 million, reflecting rising network usage.

Ethereum Weekly Transactions / Trading Volumes – Source: Artemis

Peak usage has commonly driven prices to higher levels. However, the market’s focus at the time seems to be more on external factors rather than fundamentals.

The market tends to ignore these factors for a while, but never forgets. Hence, when these temporary headwinds subside and sentiment picks up, ETH may experience a strong boost as institutional adoption continues to rise.

Similarly, trading volumes have been increasing for four weeks in a row, even though the price action has been relatively muted.

All of these data points to an ongoing phase of accumulation that could precede ETH’s next explosive move.

ETH Rejected a Move Above the 200D EMA for a Third Time

Heading to the charts, we have identified three separate instances in which the price action has recently rejected a move above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). This means that buying pressure has been unable to reverse the token’s downtrend.

ETH/USD Daily Chart (Coinbase) – Source: TradingView

An ascending triangle has formed as a result of this behavior. This structure has a slight bullish bias as it indicates that buyers are raising the floor price and could eventually gather enough strength to push the price above this sell wall.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been on an uptrend as well, but momentum has weakened as a result of today’s drop. If the oscillator drops below the mid-line, that would mean that bears are in control once again.

A break below the trend line support could push ETH to $2,700 in the near term, meaning a 16% downside risk.

In contrast, if we get a break above the 200-day EMA, which currently sits at $3,335, ETH may be getting ready to make a strong move back to $4,000, aided by increased network usage and rising volumes.

To sum up, even though on-chain data favors a bullish outlook, technical indicators are not there yet. Once they get there, the next explosive move could be right around the corner.