Ethereum Price Prediction: This Metric Says ETH is Heavily Undervalued at $2K

Ethereum (ETH) has dipped by 38% in the past 30 days alone and is currently struggling to stay above the $2,000 mark as bearish momentum continues to be strong.

This key psychological resistance has acted as a ceiling during the latest rebound. Trading volumes jumped right after the top altcoin hit this mark, confirming its technical relevance for ETH’s near-term outlook.

Volumes currently account for nearly 9% of the token’s circulating market cap, as this seems to be a highly contested area for both bulls and bears.

Supply Held by ETH Whales – Source: Santiment

In a recent Ethereum price prediction, we highlighted how on-chain data is favoring a bullish outlook for the token, as network usage rose to new records while whales entered “accumulation mode” since the price dipped below $3,000.

Ethereum is Undervalued Based on This On-Chain Metric

Now, on-chain data from Santiment gives us yet another reason to see Ethereum as a buy at $2,000, as a metric known as MVRV shows that ETH is heavily undervalued at these levels.

ETH MVRV Ratio (365 Days) – Source: Santiment

Looking at the 12-month MRVR and its historical performance, we can see that this metric has been a good predictor of previous local and even cycle bottoms for ETH for the past 7 years or so.

The signal triggers whenever the 365-day MVRV Ratio drops below 15%. Since that happens, ETH has effectively entered the “undervalued” stage based on our analysis.

However, since the price can keep dipping, as it has in the past, the ideal entry comes whenever the 365-day MVRV Ratio rises above 15% again, indicating a trend reversal.

The last three times this signal flashed, these well-timed entries have delivered an average gain of 98%.

Right now, the MVRV Ratio has plunged to -36%, indicating that ETH is severely undervalued based on historical patterns. This is the lowest reading the metric has printed since April 2025, back when the token bottomed at around $1,400.

As we have been mentioning in previous articles, extremely negative sentiment readings tend to be contrarian indicators. However, timing your entries in a bearish market is key to profiting from the upcoming rebound.

Hence, this MVRV Ratio-based signal helps us better timed our entries.

Ethereum Price Prediction for 2026 Unfolded as Expected

Now, looking at our baseline scenario for Ethereum for the first quarter of 2026, a drop below the token’s 100-weekly exponential moving average (EMA) performed as anticipated.

ETH/USD Weekly Chart (Bitstamp) – Source: TradingView

Based on historical patterns, we expected a 42% drop for ETH that would push it to $1,600 by the end of this quarter. That prediction has almost been fully realized, and is in line with the behavior of the MVRV metric as well.

If ETH bounces off $1,600 and the MVRV starts to recover, that would give us an early “buy” signal that would deliver the highest possible return.

A pivotal price level to confirm a trend reversal, apart from the MVRV buy signal, would be the $2,200.

If the price rises above this structural level, that would confirm that selling pressure is rising and could also trigger a massive short squeeze that supports a bullish move back to $3,000 or higher.