EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to Trade Sideways

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

Taking a look at the Euro you can see that we continue to see more or less sideways action, although it was a little bit positive during the trading session here on Monday. I don’t know that I would read too much into it. We’re just above the 50-day EMA and have the 200-day EMA underneath.

If we can break 1.09, then it opens up a move to 1.10. On the other hand, if we break down below the 200 day EMA, then it opens up a move down to 1.07, or roughly 1% either way, depending on which way we break out or down. The euro, of course, is going to have to continue to take into account that the ECB may have to cut rates. Germany in a recession certainly is a big issue.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year. So basically, I think you have a fight between two currencies that are essentially expected to do the same thing that we’re right in the middle of the larger consolidation area. And therefore, I think there isn’t a whole lot to do here other than use this currency pair as a gauge on us dollar strength or weakness.

As we continue to drift sideways, a lot of short-term scalpers might be attracted to this market, but if you’re looking to this as a place to trade easily, then unless it’s on a 5, 10 or 15 minute chart, you’re going to have trouble. In general, I think this is a market that you need to wait until it gets to the outer edge of the consolidation area before putting any serious money to work. And with that, I’m relatively neutral on this pair, and essentially use it as a gauge on how the US dollar will behave in the overall Forex markets, as this is the biggest gauge of strength or weakness that is easily accessible.

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