EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts – U.S. Dollar Gains Ground As Composite PMI Beats Expectations

Vladimir Zernov
Updated: Jun 21, 2024, 16:45 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • EUR/USD pulled back below 1.0700 as Euro Area Manufacturing PMI missed analyst expectations.
  • GBP/USD tested new lows as the pullback continued.
  • USD/JPY is moving towards the psychologically important 160.00 level.

In this article:

U.S. Dollar

DXY 210624 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the better-than-expected PMI reports. Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.3 in May to 51.7 in June, compared to analyst consensus of 51. Services PMI grew from 54.8 to 55.1, while analysts expected that it would fall to 53.7 Numbers above 50 show expansion.

In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the resistance at 105.75 – 106.00, it will move towards the next resistance level at 106.60 – 106.80.


EUR/USD 210624 4h Chart

EUR/USD pulled back as traders focused on the weaker-than-expected PMI data. Euro Area Manufacturing PMI declined from 47.3 in May to 45.6 in June, while Services PMI decreased from 53.2 to 52.6.

If EUR/USD stays below the 1.0710 level, it will gain additional downside momentum and move towards the next support level at 1.0600 – 1.0620.


GBP/USD 210624 4h Chart

GBP/USD tested new lows after the release of PMI reports. UK Manufacturing PMI improved from 51.2 in May to 51.4 in June, while UK Services PMI declined from 52.9 to 51.2.

A move below the 1.2600 level will open the way to the test of the support at 1.2550 – 1.2575.


USD/CAD 210624 4h Chart

USD/CAD is trying to settle back above the 1.3700 level as traders focus on the strong pullback in gold and silver markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also moving lower in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD settles above 1.3700, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3727. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the resistance at 1.3785 – 1.3800.


USD/JPY 210624 4h Chart

USD/JPY tests new highs after the successful test of the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50. There are no signs of interventions from the BoJ, but traders should stay cautious as Japan’s central bank may try to defend the 160.00 level.

RSI is in the overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are increasing. It should be noted that intervention risk is the key risk for USD/JPY bulls. In case BoJ does not provide support to the Japanese yen, USD/JPY may settle above the psychologically important 160.00 level and gain additional upside momentum.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.

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