EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts – U.S. Dollar Stays Strong As ISM Services PMI Exceeds Expectations

Vladimir Zernov
Published: Sep 6, 2023, 16:40 GMT+00:00

Treasury yields are moving towards recent highs, providing additional support to the American currency.


In this article:

Key Insights

  • U.S. dollar tests new highs, supported by the strong ISM Services PMI report. 
  • EUR/USD retreats as Germany’s Factory Orders decline by 11.7% in July. 
  • USD/JPY is mostly flat as bulls are afraid of BoJ interventions.

U.S. Dollar

DXY 060923 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gained ground as traders reacted to the better-than-expected ISM Services PMI report, which showed that ISM Services PMI improved from 52.7 in July to 54.5 in August.

From the technical point of view, U.S. Dollar Index settled above the previous resistance at 104.40 – 104.70 and is moving towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 105.65 – 105.90 range.


EUR/USD 060923 4h Chart

EUR/USD tested new lows as traders reacted to the Euro Area Retail Sales report, which showed that Retail Sales declined by 0.2% month-over-month in July. Germany’s Factory Orders decreased by 11.7% in July, highlighting the challenging situation in Europe’s leading economy.

RSI is in the oversold territory, so the risks of a rebound are increasing. However, there is enough room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.


GBP/USD 060923 4h Chart

GBP/USD tested the 1.2500 level as traders focused on the general strength of the U.S. dollar.

The pullback continues, and it remains to be seen whether GBP/USD will find enough support in the 1.2470 – 1.2500 range as RSI remains in the moderate territory.


USD/CAD 060923 4h Chart

USD/CAD is moving higher despite the continuation of the rally in the oil markets, which was triggered by Saudi Arabia’s decision to maintain voluntary production cuts until the end of the year.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the resistance in the 1.3650 – 1.3670 range. A move above 1.3670 will provide USD/CAD with an opportunity to gain additional upside momentum.


USD/JPY 060923 4h Chart

USD/JPY is mostly flat despite rising Treasury yields. It looks that bulls are worried that BoJ will intervene if USD/JPY moves above the resistance in the 148.00 – 149.00 range.

In the near term, potential interventions may serve as the key catalyst for USD/JPY. However, USD/JPY will have a chance to climb above the 149.00 level if Treasury yields continue to move higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.

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