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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is under pressure on Thursday thanks to flight-to-safety buying into the U.S. Dollar. Fear of an escalation of the trade dispute between the United States and China is driving investor out of risky assets like stocks and risky currencies like the Euro and into the safety of the U.S. Dollar.

At 1142 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1620, down 0.0043 or -0.37%.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The main trend turned down earlier today when sellers took out the last swing bottom at 1.1621. If the selling pressure continues then the next target will be the July 19 main bottom at 1.1575.

The main range is 1.1851 to 1.1527. Its retracement zone is 1.1680 to 1.1720. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the EUR/USD. Trading below this zone is giving the Forex pair a downside bias.

The short-term range is 1.1575 to 1.1751. The market is also trading on the bearish side of its retracement zone at 1.1663 to 1.1642.

All of the retracement levels are now resistance.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The momentum is clearly to the downside on Thursday. If sellers continue to pound this Forex pair then look for a test of 1.1575. Taking out this level will reaffirm the downtrend. This could lead to a further break into the June 28 bottom at 1.1527.

Overtaking the old bottom at 1.1621 will indicate the selling pressure is weakening. Recovering 1.1642 will indicate the short-covering is getting stronger. This will also occur if the EUR/USD recovers 1.1663 and 1.1680. The latter is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

Look for the bearish momentum to continue as long as the EUR/USD can sustain a break under 1.1621.

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