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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading slightly higher on Thursday, but inside yesterday’s range. This chart pattern tends to indicate investor indecision. Although today looks like it is going to be a risk-off day, the Euro is surprisingly trading higher. Traders could be reacting to lower Treasury yields.

Also on tap is a boatload of U.S. economic data including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, Revised Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Traders will also get a chance to react to the Trade Balance, Weekly Unemployment Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

At 1300 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1353, up 0.0007 or +0.07%.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher. A trade through 1.1267 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1474 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is up. This is driving momentum higher. A trade through 1.1305 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The EUR/USD continues to be influenced by a series of retracement levels. The nearest support is a Fibonacci level at 1.1315. Resistance is layered at 1.1345, 1.1370 and 1.1395.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 1.1353, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1345.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1345 will indicate the presence of buyers. The next target is a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1354. This is also the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next target the main 50% level at 1.1370. This is followed by the main Fibonacci level at 1.1395.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1345 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a steep break into the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1315. This is followed by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1306.

Taking out the uptrending Gann angle and the minor bottom at 1.1305 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next targets 1.1267 and 1.1261.

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