EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for November 16, 2021

The Euro hit a 16-month low on Tuesday as traders prepared for a report on U.S. retail sales that could set the tone for the rest of the session. A stronger-than-expected read could increase fears over red-hot inflation, while increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to rate interest rates.

At 12:52 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1361, down 0.0008 or -0.07%.

A slew of economic data will be released on Tuesday, including U.S. retail sales figures for October. Economists predict a boom in October’s retail sales, aided by rising gasoline prices and early holiday shopping.

Retail sales are expected to rise 1.5%, up from September’s 0.7% gain, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales are forecasted to rise 1%, compared to the 0.8% increase a month earlier, Dow Jones found.

The Census Bureau will release the retail sales report at 13:30 GMT.

Additionally, industrial production numbers will also be released, as well as the NAHB housing market index survey.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 1.1352 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 1.1608 will change the main trend to up.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1464 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a long-term 50% level at 1.1493. On the downside, the nearest support is a long-term 61.8% level at 1.1291.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1369.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1369 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out 1.1351 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a potential acceleration into the long-term Fibonacci level at 1.1291.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1369 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the move to extend into 1.1408.

Since the main trend is down, look for sellers on the first test of 1.1408. Overcoming this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target the minor top at 1.1464, followed by the long-term 50% level at 1.1493.

Side Notes

A close over 1.1369 will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.