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James Hyerczyk

The Euro is trading at a three-week high against the U.S. Dollar on Friday on optimism the U.S. and China will reach at least a partial trade agreement by the end of the session. The Euro isn’t getting stronger per se, it’s the U.S. Dollar that’s getting weaker. Hopes for a trade deal are reducing the greenback’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

At 11:59 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1055, up 0.0049 or +0.45%.

Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators wrapped up their first day of trade talks on Thursday, with U.S. President Donald Trump welcoming what he called a “very, very good negotiation with China”.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending higher.

A trade through 1.1110 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.0879 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. This is helping to generate the upside momentum. The next upside target is the minor top at 1.1076. A trade through 1.0941 will change the minor trend to down.

The main range is 1.1164 to 1.0879. Its retracement zone at 1.1022 to 1.1055 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.

The minor range is 1.1110 to 1.0879. Its retracement zone at 1.1022 to 1.0995 is support.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the earlier price action and the current price at 1.1055, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1060 and an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1039.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1039 will indicate the presence of buyers. However, buyers need to take out the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1060 to extend the rally.

If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the next downtrending Gann angle at 1.1079, followed by the main top at 1.1110.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome the downtrending Gann angle 1.1060 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out the uptrending Gann angle at 1.1039 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a break into the 1.1022. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into the 50% level at 1.0995.

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