EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Bouncing From Lows

The Euro has rallied just a bit during the trading session on Monday to continue defending the bottom of the overall range, an area that has been important more than once. All of that being said, the 50 day EMA above at the 1.17 region more than likely will continue to offer quite a bit of resistance, and therefore I think that any upside in this pair is probably limited, but that does not necessarily mean that I would treat the 50 day EMA as a bit of a “brick wall.” That being said, it certainly looks as if the market is paying attention to it.

EUR/USD Video 02.11.21

If we were to break above the 50 day EMA, then it is likely that we go looking towards 1.18 handle, and then the 1.1850 level. Looking to the downside, if we were to break down below the 1.15 handle, that would more than likely be a very negative turn of events that could open up a move down towards the 1.1250 level. Obviously, for that to happen there would have to be something very ugly going on, as the US dollar is considered to be a “safety currency.”

Going forward, pay close attention to the interest rate differential between the 10 year notes of both regions, as most European notes are either negative yielding, or something very close to it. With that being the case, the US dollar continues to look attractive due to the fact that interest rates in the United States still offers positive rates, and they of course are starting to climb. With this, I think you continue to see a lot of noisy behavior more than anything else, but at this point I think it is just that, noise.

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