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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD daily chart, October 18, 2019

The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.11 level. This is an area that obviously will attract a lot of attention as it recently has been both support and resistance, and it is a large round figure. However, when you look back at the last 18 months, we have seen the market popped back between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators. At this point, although it has been very bullish as of late, we have seen this before. In fact, I’m not a buyer of the Euro until we break cleanly above the 200 day EMA and sustain that move. Ultimately, this is a market that’s in a downtrend for good reason.

EURUSD analysis Video 18.10.19

That being said, it does muddy the waters a bit that we are starting to see softer economic numbers coming out of the United States. With that being the case, it’s likely that the sellers will come back in and push this market back down. Ultimately, the 1.10 level would be short-term support, but if we can break down below there we can continue to go much lower. When you look at the weekly chart, the hammer has formed for the previous week, so one could have said that this should have been seeing coming, but at the end of the day it’s still just that bounce and what has been a very strong downtrend. I’ll be paying special attention to the 200 day EMA, or of sensibly the 1.12 handle.

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