EUR/USD Prices Forecast: Ascends on Stellar Euro Zone Industrial Output

Highlights

• Euro’s rise linked to industrial output boost.
• U.S. Treasury yields fall ahead of Fed minutes.
• Mixed messages from Fed on rate hike outlook.

Overview

The Euro is making strides against the U.S. Dollar, bolstered by promising industrial output figures. Today, at 09:38 GMT, the EUR/USD stands at 1.0930, marking a 0.23% increase.

Euro Zone Industrial Production Climbs

Euro Zone’s industrial sector displayed resilience in June, concluding a relatively tepid quarter on an upbeat note. Eurostat data reveals a 0.5% monthly expansion in industrial production for the 20 Euro nations, surpassing the anticipated 0.2% rise. Meanwhile, the quarter’s gross domestic product saw a steady 0.3% rise.

Treasury Yields Dip Ahead of Fed Minutes

On the other side of the pond, the U.S. Treasury yields waned in anticipation of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. The main focus is the future of interest rates. Investors are on the edge of their seats as the Fed’s July meeting minutes are about to be disclosed. The July session saw a 25 basis point hike in interest rates. Since March 2022, the Fed has increased rates 11 times, only pausing in June to evaluate the effect of these hikes on economic temperature and inflation rates.

Short-Term Forecast:  Fed Dependent

Looking ahead, investors are keenly observing the Fed’s next moves, as three central bank meetings loom this year. The minutes might shed light on the bank’s future policy decisions. In addition, the state of the U.S. economy will be under the microscope with the release of July’s building permits and housing starts reports. Given the current dynamics, the market sentiment seems cautiously optimistic for the Euro, signaling a potentially bullish outlook.

Technical Analysis

The current 4-hour price of EUR/USD stands at 1.0925, displaying a marginal decline from the previous 4-hour reading of 1.0928. Positioned below both the 200-4H moving average at 1.1021 and the 50-4H moving average at 1.0963, the currency pair presents a bearish tendency. The 14-4H RSI is recorded at 46.07, indicating a somewhat weakened momentum but not drastically so.

Pertaining to the key support and resistance levels, the price is precariously close to the main support zone of 1.0912 to 1.0897, while the primary resistance is identified between 1.1042 to 1.1065. The immediate sentiment for EUR/USD leans bearish although a successful test of the 4-Hour main support zone could be enough to fuel a short-covering rally into at least the 50-4H moving average.