The US dollar has rallied a bit to recover in early Monday trading. Perhaps the markets overreacted to the jobs report?
The Euro is drifting a little bit lower during the trading session on Monday, but really, at this point in time, it’s a market that I think continues to see plenty of downward pressure for a whole host of reasons. It’s not just the US dollar strength; it’s the fact that I think Europe is probably going to struggle to hang onto any type of significant growth.
The drop from here opens up a move down to the 1.12 level, and quite frankly, you could even make an argument for a bit of a bearish flag here. So, I am bearish still. I told you last week I was looking to fade a short-term rally, and I have already done so.
The US dollar rallies against the Swiss franc, and I think it will continue to be a general move to the upside anyway. So, all things being equal, I remain bullish. I look at the 0.80 level as a potential short-term floor in the market, 0.8150 offering resistance, and then possibly 0.83 above offering a target. We are seeing the 50-day EMA try to break above the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called Golden Cross.
The British pound looks a little stagnant against the US dollar as we are struggling right at the 50-day EMA and just below the 200-day EMA. The British pound has outperformed most of its contemporaries against the US dollar, and it will continue to do so, but that doesn’t mean that it goes higher. It can mean that it falls less, and I think that’s what you’re going to see here. It becomes negative, but I’m not necessarily looking for a big move.
Breaking below 1.33 could open up a move down to the 1.32 level. If we can break above the 200-day EMA, then the 1.3450 level gets targeted in what I imagine would probably be a softer US dollar in general.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.