EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Gives Up Early Gains

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 25.09.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro initially tried to rally during the course of the week but gave back gains to show signs of hesitation. The 50-Week EMA sits just above the last couple of candlesticks, and therefore I think you need to look at this through the prism of fading rallies as they occur. After all, the European Union is going to continue to fall into recession, and therefore it’s going to weigh on the markets overall. Furthermore, they have a major problem when it comes to energy this winter, so avoiding some type of hard landing is becoming less likely.

Alternatively, if we break above the 50-Week EMA, then it’s possible that we could go looking to reach the 1.10 level. That of course would be a very bullish move for the euro, and right now I just don’t see that type of momentum. In fact, I suspect that a lot of people are going to be out there trying to pick a “cheap US dollars”, as the interest rates in America continue to climb. With that being said, I like the idea of this market continuing much lower, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to happen right away. This is going to be more of a grind, which is typical for this pair to begin with.

If you are a longer-term trader, you may be better served waiting for short-term rallies to place your positions, if for no other reason than to tweak the entry price. Nonetheless, I don’t have any interest in buying this market in the short term, I would need to see some type of major turnaround in attitude to make that position adjustment.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.