EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Continues to Look Threatened Longer Term

The Euro initially tried to rally during the course of the week but has found resistance above the 50 week EMA to turn things back around and reach towards the bottom of the short-term range. All things been equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noisy behavior but is more likely than not going to continue to look to the downside. The 1.16 level underneath is a massive floor in the market that extends down to the 1.15 handle. The 200 week EMA sits just above the 1.16 level, and of course attracts a lot of attention.

EUR/USD Video 09.08.21

On the other hand, if we were to turn around a breakout above the top of the candlesticks from the last couple of weeks, then it is likely that the 1.20 level will be tested. The 1.20 handle above would be a major resistance barrier, at least from a psychological standpoint. Nonetheless, I think that you can see we have sliced through there multiple times so that could give way rather quickly. In general, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately, we are probably going to see the hard floor coming out rather soon.

Looking at this chart, I think we probably have a little further to go to the downside more than anything else, but you probably need to see a short-term chart to make some real positions in this market appear, simply because the risk to reward situation on the weekly chart may be getting a bit stretched against you if you try to continue pushing lower.

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