The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the week, as we continue to see the market try to find some type of bottom.
The Euro has been very noisy during the course of the week, going back and forth and showing signs of confusion. This does make a certain amount of sense considering that we are so oversold that a bounce would be expected by most traders. However, the fundamentals do not line up for that, and it’s very likely that we will continue to see the Euro offer nothing but grinding headaches for those that are looking for a bottom. Quite frankly, there’s nothing good coming out of the European Union this winter, and unless they suddenly find a source of gas, I don’t know how things get better this winter. Ironically, Vladimir Putin offered to sell Germany gas through what was left of the pipeline that was sabotaged, but they declined. Something tells me they will regret that decision.
That being said, it looks like the European Union is going to face a significant amount of economic pressure this winter, so I do not expect rallies to last very long. About the only reason I could see the Euro rally for any significant amount of time could be if the Federal Reserve changes its attitude. They are light years away from doing that, so right now there is no real hope for The Euro to rally.
At this point, I think that parity is your ceiling, with a break above there being a statement, but not necessarily a change to the trend. Underneath, the 0.95 level looks like it is support, but that remains speculation until we actually try to break through it. That being said, I think we will at least try to do so.
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Being FXEmpire’s analyst since the early days of the website, Chris has over 20 years of experience across various markets and assets – currencies, indices, and commodities. He is a proprietary trader as well trading institutional accounts.